Think about it, slowly!
I am reading a book titled, Thinking Fast and Slow, by Nobel Prize winner, Daniel Kahneman. He explains how the brain works and how easily it will accept information and make a decision, if what you read or hear makes sense or fits with what you believe. The ‘Thinking Fast’ part of the brain happens first to helps us make quick decisions but the ‘Thinking Slow’ part of the brain is what we use when we need to take some time, that is when a quick decision isn’t forthcoming. It happens naturally.
I was thinking about this while I was reading through The Curriculum. Han Berger, the FFA Technical Director goes to great lengths to support the decision to adopt a ‘Possession-based’ style of play, while dismissing anything to do with ‘Direct Play, a style associated with long forward passing. The link between the successful teams at the World Cup (Spain, Holland & Germany) and the Possession-based style of play all makes sense, so the reader will decide this is the right decision fairly quickly. Here’s an extract.
“Having expressed Australia’s natural preference for ‘pro-active’ rather than ‘reactive’ football, we then had to decide which end of the above ‘pro-active spectrum’ would be the wisest choice for our national technical direction: ‘possession-based’ or ‘direct play’? ‘ (Page 12)
The following extract was included to describe what constitutes ‘Direct Play” and why Australia will not go down that pathway.
The English FA adopted a ‘Direct Play’ approach in the 80s and 90s, based on some statistics that showed most goals were scored following moves of 3 passes or less. If that was true, it was argued, then why bother with patient build-up and controlled possession? Why not simply launch continuous long passes towards the strikers, hope for ‘second ball’, and then score in 3 passes or less? (Page 13)
The description of ‘Direct Play’, whether it’s accurate or not, would turn anybody off long passing so the reader is already convinced without really knowing what constitutes ‘Direct Play’, because it’s all making sense.
Statistics to support the Football Philosophy
In ‘The Curriculum’ there are quotes from FIFA and UEFA technical reports about passing statistics to support the argument for adopting a ‘Possession-based’ style. Here’s another extract (Page 14).
• Detailed data shows also that ‘the trend is away from a long-passing game’ (a ‘long pass’ is defined as one of 30 metres or more; a ‘medium pass’ is between 10 and 30 metres and ‘short passes’ are those which cover less than 10 metres).
• Long passes by the finalists throughout the tournament: Spain 8%, Italy 11%
• Most long passes: Ukraine (equal bottom of their group) 18%, Republic of Ireland (bottom of group, 0 points) 19%
However, in Euro 2012, every team except Ireland averaged more than 450 passes, and Spain’s tournament high of 929 passes was not far short of double the record in 2008.
These figures made me ‘think’ slowly about what they meant because a quick decision wasn’t forthcoming. Spain and Italy, the 2010 World Cup finalists, used long passes 8% and 11% respectively, while the two worst teams in the competition, who used the ‘Direct Play’ style, Ukraine and Ireland, used long passes 18% and 19% of the time. One could be forgiven for ‘thinking’ that the two worst teams, who adopted the ’Direct Play’ style, just booted the ball forwards all the time and didn’t play a controlled passing game at all. However, the statistics show that neither Ukraine or Ireland could have been guilty of ‘launching continuous long passes to the strikers’ because both teams made medium and short passes for over 80% of the time. You might be starting to think slowly right about now.
Let’s explore that ‘thinking’ a bit further. If Spain averaged 800 passes per game (Spain made 900+ in some games) and 8% were long, that would equate to around 64 long passes during the game. If Ireland averaged 400 passes per game (they averaged less than 450 passes) they would have made around 76 long passes, 19%. Not a massive difference between two teams supposed to be exponents of two completely different and incompatible styles of play.
What the statistics don’t tell you is how many of the long passes by Spain or Ireland were made by choice to (a) switch the point of attack, play up to forwards or pass the ball into the space behind the defence, or (b) made when under pressure from opponents, the sort that many teams make from their back third or own half for fear of getting caught in possession, irrespective of preferred playing style.
Evidence
In the 1980’s the evidence to support the theory of Direct Play was irrefutable and more substantial than the description given in The Curriculum. The problem was that coaches applied the concept too often, to the exclusion of making shorter passes when it was on to do so. My concern is we will make the same mistake by forcing players to make short passes and not develop the techniques of long passing. I say this because in our development programs and clubs, young players are forced to play out from the back no matter what, even when it doesn’t make sense.
Model Sessions & Skill Acquisition
The Curriculum has detailed ‘Model sessions’ for the ‘Core Skills’ that will be taught as a priority. In the ‘Striking the ball’ component, there isn’t one example to encourage long passing and few that promote getting the ball in the air. We may well be in danger of developing a generation of players who can only pass the ball over a short distance (including goalkeepers) and when asked to make longer passes as they get older, will not have the technical ability to do it accurately or effectively. Don’t be fooled into thinking that anyone can hit long accurate passes, it’s actually much harder than passing the ball ten yards and requires a lot of practice.
Long passing isn’t mentioned in ‘The Curriculum’ until page 254, when it is used in a practice for ‘defending to win second balls’. It’s a major concern, in my opinion, that nowhere in The Curriculum does it mention the importance of playing the ball behind the opposing back line. My PhD research has proven that it is the most effective method of scoring goals. It isn’t hitting hopeful long balls up to strikers; it is the skill of being able to pass the ball accurately over any distance, to the space behind the defence for a player making a forward run.
Potential Effect
If coaches do not develop the techniques of long passing in players or encourage them to look for opportunities to pass the ball long, it could be counter-productive. Players develop heading skills by dealing with high balls and crosses. Chipping the ball is a delicate technique, used with precision by many players to create scoring opportunities. We need to develop players who are able and who look for opportunities to use all passing techniques. David Beckham became famous for his ability to pass the ball accurately over long distance, something he practised in ‘isolation’, which is a methodology FFA deem to be counter productive to skill development, but that’s another story.
Playing Styles
It’s a concern that FFA view football as being played one way or the other, ….‘we then had to decide which end of the above ‘pro-active spectrum’ would be the wisest choice for our national technical direction: ‘possession-based’ or ‘direct play’? ‘ Surely, a sensible strategy in football is a wise combination of both, at the right time. The difference between successful and unsuccessful teams isn’t playing style or the system of play it’s the ability of the players to make the right decisions and have the technical expertise to execute them.
Have a ‘think’ about it, slowly.