Goal scoring in the A League after 18 Rounds
Review
Since Round 9 of the A League I have been tracking the teams most likely to win the league based on the number of goals scored and the percentage of goals from Set Plays and in Open Play. I’ve also tracked the number of passes leading up to each goal and the areas of the field where possession was regained.
After 9 rounds only three teams had reached double figures in Open Play, Melbourne Victory (MVT), Adelaide (ADL) and Wellington (WEL) but Perth (PER) who were top of the league had scored 60% of their goals from Set Plays. After 14 Rounds the same four teams had scored 20+ goals and were all on track for a top finish but by this stage ADL (18%) and WEL (21%) had a lower percentage of goals from Set Plays with MVT (36%) and Perth (40%) almost twice as high.
The most points from last 9 Rounds
After 18 Rounds the gap between Sydney (SYD) in 5th place and PER in 1st place is down to 6 points with 27 points up for grabs. At this point all top 5 teams have scored 30+ goals to be on target to win the League. WEL picked up the most points (15) between Round 9 and 18 but only won 2 points from their last 4 games. SYD, PER and ADL picked up 13 points with MVT gaining 12 points but with a game in hand. If MVT wins that match they will have the equivalent of 15 points from their last 9 games.
Goals from Set Plays
In terms of the percentage from Set Plays ADL are the lowest (21%) with 7 out of 33, WEL next (22%) with 7 out of 32, MVT have (32%) with 12 out of 37, which reflects their goals scoring superiority in Open Play compared with SYD who have (33%) with 10 out of 30 and PER who have (43%) with 13 out of 30. It’s interesting to see that MVT have scored one goal less (12) than PER (13) from Set Plays but have scored 10% less from Set Plays. This is not uncommon in the final analysis and why comparing percentages in isolation should be used with a degree of caution.
Goals from 5 Passes or less
WEL are still top of the list with 23 from 25 goals (94%), PER have scored 13 from 17 goals (76%), ADL have 19 out of 26 (73%) in Open Play, with MVT on 17 from 25 goals (68%) and SYD on 13 from 20 goals (65%). This usually reflects the speed at which teams attack once they regain possession and maybe a result of regaining more possession closer to the opponent’s goal, or a combination of both. I think it would be fair to say that all of the teams at the top play a possession based style of football, which makes these figures all the more interesting.
So which team will win the League?
The most important figure at the end of the season is the number of points not the number of goals, but they do matter. In the last 5 seasons, 4 teams have won the league without scoring the most goals. Last season BRS won the League by 10 points, the highest margin, scored 43 goals and had 52 points but ADL scored the highest number of goals (45) and came 6th. In 2009-10 season SYD won the league with 48 points, won by 1 point and scored 35 goals. MVT came 2nd and scored 47 goals.
This season I think the League will be won with more than 50 goals and with a total close to 50 points. If each team picks up the same number of points as it did in the last 9 Rounds PER would finish with 48 points, ADL 46, WEL 45, and SYD with 42 points. The wild card is MVT. They have a game in hand from Round 18, if they win that and pick up the same number of points between Round 18 and 27 they would win the League with 51 points. Its all speculation based on a couple of performance indicators so let’s see what unfolds in the next couple of months.